AFFotD’s 2023 Oscar Guide – Best Actress/Supporting Actress

Hey, hi, how are you. We’ve meticulously written a rundown of all the Best Picture of the Oscar nominations, which as we start writing this will be airing in two and a half hours, and we spent the last hour doing a rundown of the male acting categories. So let’s not waste time. WE GOT DEADLINES.

Our Predictions for Best Actress and Supporting Actress for the Oscars Happening in 180 Minutes

Best Actress

CATE BLANCHETT – TÁR

Blanchett has won two Academy Awards in her career, but she does a lot of work in this slow-moving, technically proficient film about an overbearing lesbian genius composer who sees her career fall apart largely due to her own actions. We talk about this more in depth in our Best Picture preview we link to at the top, but she’s one of the frontrunners for this award.

Should She Win

No. Listen, it’s one of her best performances, but she’s won twice already, and this does have a hint of “Al Pacino in Scent of a Woman chewing scenery to get an award” vibes.

Will She Win

Honestly there’s a 60% chance she does win, but we’re betting for the underdog, so we’re saying no. More on that later.

Ana de Armas – Blonde

Ana de Armas, famous for being delightful in Knives Out and a cardboard cut out thrown out by Ben Affleck, stars in the first biopic that also serves as torture porn, playing Marylin Monroe, a famous actress with a tragic story who in no way resembles de Armas in terms of body type, face, or voice. Do you want to see a lot of boobs and low-key sexual assult over three hours of a mix between black-and-white and color? Well good news, you need a therapist, and it’s also on Netflix. That said, de Armas actually does nail the performance.

Despite everything in that last paragraph, she does channel Monroe, and also exudes a naivety and vulnerability that feels like Monroe, even if every eighth word you think, “But wait, she wasn’t Cuban, was she?”

Should She Win

No, though that’s less a condemnation of her performance than it is that the film is fucking BLEAK. We try to avoid spoilers but fuck it – the scene where JFK makes her give him a blowjob is gross. Yes that’s a thing that happens.

Will She Win

No. We’ve heard maybe one predictor say it’ll go to her, but this is a two-woman race, and she’s not one of those two women.

ANDREA RISEBOROUGH – TO LESLIE

Oh boy. Where to begin with this movie. We’ll keep it short. A movie with some pretty legitimate actors and actresses in it (Marc Maron, Allison Janney, etc) made waves by getting a major nomination (due to a massive campaign by A-list actresses) despite only making $60,000 in theaters (due to a shitty distributer). But this is also Oscar shit. The based-on-a-true-story of a single mom who wins the lottery and spends all the money on booze and drugs (mostly booze) who then finds some sort of redemption through working at a motel and gaining sobriety, it’s a VERY Oscars movie. And RiseBorough’s performance is a VERY Oscars performance.

People got mad that she got like, Kate Winslet trying to get her nominated, but most films spend millions of dollars trying to get that kind of press, and if the performance is good, who gives a fuck?

Should She Win

Oh, no. Even without the controversy, it’s very much a “give me an Oscar, please” performance, and that hasn’t worked since Sean Penn won for Mythic River.

Will She Win

Also no. Again, even without the controversy, she’s one of those “well the win for her was the nomination” actresses that we see in the category every year.

MICHELLE WILLIAMS – THE FABELMANS

When you think “Jewish mother” you think Michelle Williams. That’s the lazy joke to make about this nomination, though in fairness to Williams, her performance as the manic and somewhat depressive mother of the Steven-Spielberg-as-a-teen stand-in is amazing. This is her fifth nomination without a win, putting her in the Amy Adams territory. She handles all of the emotional lift of the film that isn’t in the “the magic of cinema” area, and she does so admirably. She’s also an also-ran in this category.

Should She Win

She’s legitimately great in this, but no.

Will She Win

Nope!

MICHELLE YEOH – EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE

The driving force behind the likely Best Picture winner, and a powerhouse actress to everyone since her breakout to American audiences in Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, Yeoh plays a dissatisfied owner of a failing laundromat (and literally thousands of other characters) in the best film that will ever be made about the multiverse. There’s really not much more to say.

Should She Win

Yes. Yes yes yes yes yes.

Will She Win

Yes. This is a pure gut feeling from our staff, as Blanchett is more likely to win, but Yeoh is the second favorite, and we’re hoping that EEAAO love with carry over to her getting a much-deserved statue.

Best Supporting Actress

ANGELA BASSETT – BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER

Bassett is the first MCU character to get an Oscar nomination, playing the bereaved queen of Wakanda in the Black Panther sequel. She’s stoic, powerful, and dealing with grief in a very human way. These descriptions will be getting more and more brisk as we realize we only have so much time to get these previews out of the way.

Should She Win

Yes and no. Her performance, and career, deserve a statue, and we’d not at all mind to see her come away with the award.

Will She Win

This is the most up in the air category. There are three different actresses with an equal chance of winning. This is the one we’re most likely to get wrong, but we’re leaning towards no, even though we wouldn’t even bat an eyelash if we were wrong and Bassett got the award.

HONG CHAU – THE WHALE

Chau plays the caretaker (of sorts) of Brendan Fraser’s character in The Whale. It’s a great performance (and led our staff to be like “oh shit it’s the trucker from Poker Face!), It also was a bit of a surprise nomination, though definitely deserving of a nod.

Should She Win

No, but we think even Chau would be like, “yeah I’m not expecting anything here.”

Will She Win

No, she’s one of the 2/5 of nominees who are not in the discussion.

KERRY CONDON – THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN

Condon plays the sister of Colin Farrell’s character in Banshees, and puts in a stellar performance as the intellectually and emotionally complex foil to Farrell’s relatively…simple persona. She won’t win, but it’ll hopefully help elevate her from “the woman that does the voice of Friday in the Avengers movies” to someone you’ll see in a lot more lead and strong supporting roles.

Should She Win

She’s great, but not better than most of the other performances (we’d say she is the fourth most deserving).

Will She Win

We already gave our opinion of that away two paragraphs ago.

JAMIE LEE CURTIS – EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE

Playing an IRS auditor, and…lots of other things (if you have seen the movie, you’ll immediately think of the hot dog fingers) Curtis is one of four actors from Everything Everywhere All at Once to be nominated. She gives a very “blue collar” performance, while having moments of emotional heft (that admittedly are absolutely dwarfed by the emotional work of her co-star who also was nominated, more on that later).

Should She Win

No – her costar has been underappreciated during the award show process, but definitely is more integral to the film most likely to win Best Picture than Curtis.

Will She Win

Yes. Again, it’s between her, Bassett, and Hsu, but we’re erring in the side of her getting recognition for a long career (this being her first Oscar nomination after a long, storied career).

STEPHANIE HSU – EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE

Beyond Ke Huy Quan, Hsu is the emotional glue that really makes Everything Everywhere All at Once as good as it is. The lesbian, underachieving daughter of Yeoh’s character, and also an omnipotent chaos of destruction hellbent on removing herself from existence. You know, typical actor shit. There’s been a lot of narrative about how Hsu has been not receiving the recognition she rightfully deserves (seriously, she puts on one of the best performances in a supporting actress role in the last few years) and is being overshadowed by Jamie Lee Curtis getting a slew of legacy awards (to Curtis’ credit, she has seemed to be very enthusiastically supportive of all of her cast during the award season, including Hsu).

We don’t need to go into the nitty gritty of that, because it’s a lot to unpack and, oh shit, at this point we have less than two hours until the Oscars air. But let’s just say, we thing Hsu is incredible in this. If Lee Curtis wins, which we think she will, we won’t be upset…but Hsu put in the work.

Should She Win

110%. LOOK AT THIS SHIT.

Will She Win

Again, she’s one of the three most likely winners. We’re leaning towards it going to Curtis over her, but man we hope we’re wrong.