2026 Oscar Predictions (Best Actress)

We’ve run out of food. Living off of a Costco bulk order of Gushers and all the beef jerky the nearest BP station had in stock. But it’s all worth it to watch every Oscar nominated movie and arbitrarily guess who will win. We’ve already covered the Best Picture award and Best Actor, but now *strip club DJ voice* it’s time for the laydayyyyyyyys. Let’s look at the best Actress nominees for 2026.

Emma Stone – Bugonia

What’s the Role?

We want to avoid spoilers as much as we can, but the best way to describe this is a girl boss CEO who gets kidnapped by conspiracy theorists who think she’s an alien. They cut off her hair so she can’t use it to communicate to her spaceship. Normal movie.

Should She Win?

Naw. Not to say it’s a great performance, but it’s not quite a “let’s let this be the reason she is one of two or three people in history to have three Oscars for acting” good.

Will She Win?

No. She just won recently, and the next person is the heavy favorite for the award.

Jessie Buckley – Hamnet

What’s the Role?

She plays Shakespeare’s wife, who gives birth to twins. One of them, Hamnet (spoilers) passes away, and ends up being the influence for the writing of Hamlet.

Should She Win?

Eh, sure. Honestly she’s probably our third favorite performance, but all the nominees are so close to each other in terms of performance.

Will She Win?

She’s basically a lock. It would be a shocker if she didn’t didn’t get the trophy, like a historic upset, so yeah, we think she’s got it in the bag.

Kate Hudson – Song Sung Blue

What’s the Role?

Hudson plays Claire, a Patsy Cline impersonator who befriends, and then falls in love with, an alcoholic singer known as “Lightning.” She convinces him to start a Neil Diamond act (not an “impression” but an “interpretation”) as they get a following in their native Milwaukee.

Oh she also gets straight up hit by a car in one of the more shocking moments of any movie this year.

Should She Win?

Yeah. Like, we had her sliiiiightly ahead of the next actress in terms of Oscar-worthiness. This is Hudson’s second Oscar nomination (the last happening 25 years ago in Almost Famous) but she spent most of the 2000s and early 2010s being known for rom-com work, as opposed to “serious” films. This is a serious film. And she crushes it here. It helps that she actually is a real, legit singer (she released the album “Glorious” in 2024, which charted) but she also plays a sincere, emotional character with aplomb.

Will She Win?

Sigh, no. It’s Buckley’s award to win, and she didn’t really nab any of the major awards, even though we think she definitely deserved it.

Rose Byrne – If I Had Legs I Would Kick You

What’s the Role?

She plays a psychotherapist who is dealing with a child with a pediatric feeding disorder, an absent husband (not abandoned- he’s a ship captain so is away much of the time) and is trying to cope with her circumstances.

Should She Win?

We think she had the second best performance of the year, and has been so versatile over her career – to be honest we’re biased because most of our staffers’ favorite movie is Sunshine, which she was great in, but let’s land on, she should win in the sense that there are several “should win” performances this year.

Will She Win?

Probably not, which frankly is a bummer. Granted, she got some big awards (Independent Spirit Award, Best Actress in a Comedy/Musical from the Golden Globes) but at best she might be a surprise win over the heavy favorite.

Renate Reinsve – Sentimental Value

What’s the Role?

The daughter of a film director and a psychotherapist (AGAIN!?), Reinsve plays an actress in this Norwegian film – The Scandinavian vibes are very much here. She struggles with stage fright, an affair with a married co-worker, and the desire to be included in her father’s film. The tone is generally always very serious (because, Scandinavia).

Should She Win?

Not really. She was great, and it’s pretty rare for a foreign film to get an acting nomination (though increasingly less so, shout out to Parasite). Oh fun fact- she’s only the 2nd Norwegian actress to get a Best Actress nomination in history. That’s neat!

Will She Win?

Nope. Not only has she not won any major awards, this is the one category that is basically locked in. But that doesn’t take away from her very very impressive performance.

And here we go! Stay tuned for our next posts about supporting actors and general categories! Oscar time is coming, bay-beeee!