“Oh they’re cutting it close today”

~You

We really messed this up, so this will be a pretty quick run-through of acting performances. Should they win? Will they win? Let’s see! (Honestly you don’t need a FULL rundown…so…we’ll just do as much work until we end up with the major categories)

Best Actor in a Leading Role

Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)

Adrien Brody plays a frequently traumatized and frequently minimalized Jewish Hungarian holocaust survivor making his way in post-war America.

Should They Win?

Yes. It’s a performance of a lifetime. The only reason he won’t take the prize is Timotheeee chalomeeeeeetttttt has the “young exciting actor doing good work” narrative where Adrien Brody has already won…on the “young exciting actor doing good work” narrative.

Will They Win?

Probably! He’s the favorite to win, but we can see an upset in the mix.

Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown)

Timotheee Chalameeeettt has two Oscar nominations under his belt by the age of 29, and no wins. He tries the biopic route for a win with his portrayal of a young Bob Dylan, which he reportedly worked on for five years. Brag?

Should They Win?

Eh, no. It IS a great performance, but we’re hoping the Oscars stop rewarding “cheat-mode high-effort biopic” awards.

Will They Win?

He’s the second-most likely to win per the odds. But we think this is Brody’s to lose.

Colman Domingo (Sing Sing)

Domingo plays Divine G, an incarcerated man who finds purpose in the inmate theater program at New York’s Sing Sing prison, while holding out hope for his exoneration, mentoring his fellow inmates, with Divine G being the most important.

Should They Win?

Honestly, yes. Brody is amazing but if you want to recognize an actor who has not won before, this is the performance that would earn it.

Will They Win?

Ugh, he wont. Colman Domingo has gone from Fear of the Walking Dead regular to perennial Oscar nominee (with a nomination for Rustin last year). He’s one of those actors who speaks and performs with such authority and gravitas that it reminds you of the Golden age. But he’s doing it in FANTASTIC movies that don’t catch as many eyes, so

Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)

After the sudden death of the pope, the dean of the college of Cardinals, Fiennes navigates political intrigue in the Vatican as he becomes a candidate for a role he doesn’t wish for.

Should They Win?

Yes, though it’s probably not the best performance of the year. This is his third nomination, and he definitely earned one for Schindler’s List.

Will They Win?

Probably not, but it’s a great performance nonetheless.

Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)

It’s…Trump

Should They Win?

No. It’s not even Sebastian’s best performance this year.

Will They Win?

No.

Should They Win?

Stan is actually REALLY good in this, but no.

Best Leading Actress

Cynthia Erivo (Wicked)

It’s Elphaba/The Wicked Witch of the West

Will They Win?

Nope.

Should They Win?

Nothing against Erivo but, no. Amazing singing, amazing performance, but it won’t go her way.

Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez)

The first transgendered actress to be nominated for an Oscar played a Mexican cartel drug lord who went through gender transformation surgeries to live a new life.

Will They Win?

Okay so, no. The Spanish woman in a French directed movie with a lot of bad tweets has become an annoying news cycle, despite her win for the Golden Globe.

Should They Win?

Not particularly.

Will They Win?

Haha oh, no.

Mikey Madison (Anora)

The titular sex-worker of a Oscar front-runner

Should They Win?

Great performance from a great performer but this reads as “next nomination will be the one that gets a win”.

Will They Win?

It doesn’t seem likely here unfortunately.

Demi Moore (The Substance)

A famous aerobics instructor tries to stay young. Body horror ensues

Should They Win?

Fuck and yes.

Will They Win?

Most likely!

Should They Win?

Oh yes! It’s a career defining moment for her and she’s got all the momentum.

Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here)

The matriarch of a separated family during a brutal Brazilian military rule.

Okay, full disclosure. We didn’t allow enough time for the whole series. So here are the rest of our Oscar predictions. (asterisks indicated a movie we’ve not seen)

Best Supporting Actor

Yura Borisov (Anora)

Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) (Should Win Will Win) (BY A LOT)

Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown)

Guy Pearce (The Brutalist)

Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)

Best Supporting Actress

Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown)

Ariana Grande (Wicked)

Felicity Jones (The Brutalist)

Isabella Rossellini (Conclave)

Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) (Should Win Will Win)

Best Director

Anora (Sean Barker) (maybe will win)

The Brutalist (Brady Borbet) (should win maybe will win)

A Complete Unknown (James Mangold)

Emilia Pérez (Jacques Audiard)

The Substance (Coralie Fargeat)

Animated Feature Film

Flow*

Inside Out 2

Memoir of a Snail*

Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

The Wild Robot (will win should win)

Animated Short Film

(we haven’t seen any of these)

Beautiful Men

In the Shadow of the Cypress

Magic Candies

Wander to Wonder (will win? we don’t know who should)

Yuck!

Cinematography

The Brutalist (should win will win)

Dune: Part Two

Emilia Pérez

Maria*

Nosferatu

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

A Complete Unknown

Conclave (should win will win)

Emilia Pérez

Nickel Boys

Sing Sing

Writing (Original Screenplay)

Anora (will win)

The Brutalist

A Real Pain (should win)

Written by Jesse Eisenberg

September 5*

The Substance